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2021 Governor · VA

Echelon Insights · fieldwork ended 2021-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 611 respondents · Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.64% · Republican 50.57%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.644 − 50.574 = -1.930
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-1.930) = -1.070
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.070| = 1.070

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 77144, race ID 8989 (538 database).