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2021 Governor · NJ

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2021-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR/Online Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 52.2% · Republican 47.8%

D+4.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.23% · Republican 48.00%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.2 − 47.8 = 4.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.225 − 48.002 = 3.223
  3. Signed miss = 4.40 − (3.223) = 1.177
  4. Absolute miss = |1.177| = 1.177

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 76925, race ID 8988 (538 database).