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2021 House · OH-15

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2021-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 445 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 38.9% · Republican 50%

R+11.1

The certified result

Democrat 41.70% · Republican 58.30%

R+16.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.9 − 50 = -11.10
  2. Actual margin = 41.698 − 58.302 = -16.604
  3. Signed miss = -11.10 − (-16.604) = 5.504
  4. Absolute miss = |5.504| = 5.504

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 76898, race ID 9477 (538 database).