2004 President · WI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.32%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 49.700 − 49.320 = 0.380
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (0.380) = 6.620
- Absolute miss = |6.620| = 6.620
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 76095, race ID 803 (538 database).