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2004 President · MN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.09% · Republican 47.61%

D+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.090 − 47.614 = 3.476
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.476) = -1.476
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.476| = 1.476

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75961, race ID 778 (538 database).