2004 President · MI
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 44%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.23% · Republican 47.81%
D+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 44 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.231 − 47.812 = 3.419
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.419) = 4.581
- Absolute miss = |4.581| = 4.581
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75950, race ID 777 (538 database).