2004 President · IA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 602 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 44%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.23% · Republican 49.90%
R+0.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 44 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 49.233 − 49.901 = -0.668
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (-0.668) = 6.668
- Absolute miss = |6.668| = 6.668
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75923, race ID 767 (538 database).