2004 President · FL
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 599 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-5.007) = 6.006
- Absolute miss = |6.006| = 6.006
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75903, race ID 764 (538 database).