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2004 President · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 2,131 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 50.1%

R+1.2

The certified result

Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%

R+5.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 50.1 = -1.20
  2. Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
  3. Signed miss = -1.20 − (-5.007) = 3.806
  4. Absolute miss = |3.806| = 3.806

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75892, race ID 764 (538 database).