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2004 President · CO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 709 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 49.3%

R+1.8

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 51.71%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 49.3 = -1.80
  2. Actual margin = 47.038 − 51.711 = -4.673
  3. Signed miss = -1.80 − (-4.673) = 2.873
  4. Absolute miss = |2.873| = 2.873

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75888, race ID 760 (538 database).