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2000 House · MN-4

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 414 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 29%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.04% · Republican 30.89%

D+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 29 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.041 − 30.892 = 17.149
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (17.149) = -5.150
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.150| = 5.150

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75798, race ID 2494 (538 database).