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2008 President · M1

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 362 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 37%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.51% · Republican 37.69%

D+22.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 37 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.513 − 37.694 = 22.819
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (22.819) = 0.181
  4. Absolute miss = |0.181| = 0.181

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 75472, race ID 8705 (538 database).