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2020 President · FL

The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-27 (7 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48.2% · Republican 47.7%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.2 − 47.7 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (-3.359) = 3.858
  4. Absolute miss = |3.858| = 3.858

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74945, race ID 6220 (538 database).