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2020 President · FL

The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2020-10-23 (11 days before the election) · 895 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.1% · Republican 49.2%

R+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.86% · Republican 51.22%

R+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.1 − 49.2 = -4.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.861 − 51.220 = -3.359
  3. Signed miss = -4.10 − (-3.359) = -0.742
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.742| = 0.742

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74944, race ID 6220 (538 database).