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2018 Governor · FL

The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 1,193 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.3% · Republican 50.5%

R+7.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 49.59%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.3 − 50.5 = -7.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.190 − 49.585 = -0.395
  3. Signed miss = -7.20 − (-0.395) = -6.805
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.805| = 6.805

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74940, race ID 138 (538 database).