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2018 Senate · FL

The Political Matrix/The Listener Group · fieldwork ended 2018-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 1,193 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 46.9%

D+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 46.9 = 0.40
  2. Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
  3. Signed miss = 0.40 − (-0.123) = 0.523
  4. Absolute miss = |0.523| = 0.523

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74940, race ID 100 (538 database).