2004 House · MN-6
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2004-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 53%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.94% · Republican 53.99%
R+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 45.943 − 53.992 = -8.049
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-8.049) = -8.952
- Absolute miss = |-8.952| = 8.952
The poll overstated the Republican by 9.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74188, race ID 3373 (538 database).