2004 House · CT-4
University of Connecticut · fieldwork ended 2004-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 47%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.56% · Republican 52.43%
R+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 47.565 − 52.434 = -4.869
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-4.869) = -0.131
- Absolute miss = |-0.131| = 0.131
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74173, race ID 3236 (538 database).