Skip to content

2004 House · CO-4

Ciruli Associates · fieldwork ended 2004-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 48%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.78% · Republican 51.05%

R+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 48 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.782 − 51.049 = -6.267
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-6.267) = -10.733
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.733| = 10.733

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74171, race ID 3229 (538 database).