Skip to content

2006 House · PA-6

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2006-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 404 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.34% · Republican 50.66%

R+1.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.340 − 50.660 = -1.320
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.320) = 4.320
  4. Absolute miss = |4.320| = 4.320

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74136, race ID 3926 (538 database).