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2006 House · NY-25

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 41%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.26% · Republican 40.12%

D+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.259 − 40.116 = 4.143
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (4.143) = -0.143
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.143| = 0.143

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74120, race ID 3874 (538 database).