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2006 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 320 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 52.71% · Republican 45.61%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.713 − 45.609 = 7.104
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (7.104) = -7.104
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.104| = 7.104

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74106, race ID 3833 (538 database).