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2006 House · MN-5

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 806 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 24%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.56% · Republican 21.34%

D+34.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 24 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.556 − 21.340 = 34.216
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (34.216) = -9.216
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.216| = 9.216

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74096, race ID 3808 (538 database).