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2006 House · CA-26

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 553 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 54%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.89% · Republican 56.95%

R+19.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 54 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.890 − 56.953 = -19.063
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-19.063) = 0.063
  4. Absolute miss = |0.063| = 0.063

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74009, race ID 3635 (538 database).