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2006 House · AR-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-10-17 (21 days before the election) · 404 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 41%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.53% · Republican 39.47%

D+21.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 41 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.528 − 39.472 = 21.056
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (21.056) = -5.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.056| = 5.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 74005, race ID 3607 (538 database).