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2020 Senate · GA

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2021-01-03 (2 days before the election) · 857 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.3% · Republican 46.8%

D+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.3 − 46.8 = 4.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = 4.50 − (1.226) = 3.275
  4. Absolute miss = |3.275| = 3.275

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73993, race ID 8737 (538 database).