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2020 Senate · GA

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2021-01-03 (2 days before the election) · 857 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.8% · Republican 46.9%

D+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.8 − 46.9 = 3.90
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 3.90 − (2.080) = 1.820
  4. Absolute miss = |1.820| = 1.820

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73993, race ID 7781 (538 database).