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2020 Senate · GA

National Research · fieldwork ended 2021-01-02 (3 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 49.39%

D+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.613 − 49.387 = 1.226
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (1.226) = -0.225
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.225| = 0.225

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73991, race ID 8737 (538 database).