Skip to content

2020 Senate · GA

National Research · fieldwork ended 2021-01-02 (3 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.080) = -1.080
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.080| = 1.080

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73991, race ID 7781 (538 database).