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2020 Senate · GA

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2020-12-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,680 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.1% · Republican 46.9%

D+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.1 − 46.9 = 4.20
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 4.20 − (2.080) = 2.120
  4. Absolute miss = |2.120| = 2.120

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73957, race ID 7781 (538 database).