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2020 Senate · GA

Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2020-12-20 (16 days before the election) · 578 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 47%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.080) = 0.920
  4. Absolute miss = |0.920| = 0.920

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73955, race ID 7781 (538 database).