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2010 House · NM-1

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39.9% · Republican 47.4%

R+7.5

The certified result

Democrat 51.80% · Republican 48.20%

D+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.9 − 47.4 = -7.50
  2. Actual margin = 51.803 − 48.197 = 3.606
  3. Signed miss = -7.50 − (3.606) = -11.105
  4. Absolute miss = |-11.105| = 11.105

The poll overstated the Republican by 11.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73913, race ID 4717 (538 database).