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2020 Senate · GA

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2020-12-28 (8 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 45%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 45 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (2.080) = 6.920
  4. Absolute miss = |6.920| = 6.920

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73908, race ID 7781 (538 database).