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2003 Governor · LA

Market Research Insight · fieldwork ended 2003-11-04 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 46%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.95% · Republican 48.05%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 46 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.949 − 48.051 = 3.898
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (3.898) = -9.898
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.898| = 9.898

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73769, race ID 1378 (538 database).