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2005 Governor · NJ

Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2005-10-28 (11 days before the election) · 421 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 40%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.02%

D+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 40 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.472 − 43.023 = 10.449
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (10.449) = -6.448
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.448| = 6.448

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73735, race ID 1363 (538 database).