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2006 House · CA-50

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2006-05-31 (6 days before the election) · 448 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.02% · Republican 49.57%

R+4.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.020 − 49.573 = -4.553
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-4.553) = 2.553
  4. Absolute miss = |2.553| = 2.553

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73720, race ID 1820 (538 database).