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2009 House · NY-23

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2009-10-28 (6 days before the election) · 704 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 20%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.97% · Republican 4.80%

D+39.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 20 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.965 − 4.796 = 39.169
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (39.169) = -23.169
  4. Absolute miss = |-23.169| = 23.169

The poll overstated the Republican by 23.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73694, race ID 1800 (538 database).