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2010 House · PA-12

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2010-05-13 (5 days before the election) · 888 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 35.1%

D+8.4

The certified result

Democrat 52.64% · Republican 44.99%

D+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 35.1 = 8.40
  2. Actual margin = 52.641 − 44.990 = 7.651
  3. Signed miss = 8.40 − (7.651) = 0.749
  4. Absolute miss = |0.749| = 0.749

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73683, race ID 1798 (538 database).