2006 Governor · RI
Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2006-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 50%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 48.991 − 51.009 = -2.018
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-2.018) = -6.983
- Absolute miss = |-6.983| = 6.983
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73568, race ID 1354 (538 database).