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2006 Governor · IA

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 37%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.02% · Republican 44.38%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 37 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.025 − 44.379 = 9.646
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (9.646) = -2.646
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.646| = 2.646

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73567, race ID 1337 (538 database).