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2010 Governor · SC

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-22 (11 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 49%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.91% · Republican 51.37%

R+4.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 49 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.908 − 51.371 = -4.463
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-4.463) = -5.537
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.537| = 5.537

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73533, race ID 1303 (538 database).