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2013 Governor · VA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2013-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 666 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 30.7%

D+12.3

The certified result

Democrat 47.74% · Republican 45.22%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 30.7 = 12.30
  2. Actual margin = 47.736 − 45.217 = 2.519
  3. Signed miss = 12.30 − (2.519) = 9.782
  4. Absolute miss = |9.782| = 9.782

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73518, race ID 1257 (538 database).