2014 Senate · TN
Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 595 respondents · IVR/Online Panel · partisan sponsor (DEM)
The poll said
Democrat 32% · Republican 45%
R+13.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.86% · Republican 61.87%
R+30.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 32 − 45 = -13.00
- Actual margin = 31.865 − 61.867 = -30.002
- Signed miss = -13.00 − (-30.002) = 17.001
- Absolute miss = |17.001| = 17.001
The poll overstated the Democrat by 17.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73246, race ID 28 (538 database).