2012 Senate · OH
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 826 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 46.2% · Republican 39.9%
D+6.3
The certified result
Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%
D+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46.2 − 39.9 = 6.30
- Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
- Signed miss = 6.30 − (6.001) = 0.299
- Absolute miss = |0.299| = 0.299
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73060, race ID 1494 (538 database).