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2012 President · VA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.3% · Republican 47.1%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 47.28%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.3 − 47.1 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 51.156 − 47.283 = 3.873
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (3.873) = -4.673
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.673| = 4.673

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73057, race ID 698 (538 database).