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2012 President · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 825 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.3% · Republican 46.8%

D+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.3 − 46.8 = 0.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = 0.50 − (0.877) = -0.377
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.377| = 0.377

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73054, race ID 662 (538 database).