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2012 Senate · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-29 (8 days before the election) · 825 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 42.1%

D+6.6

The certified result

Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%

D+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 42.1 = 6.60
  2. Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
  3. Signed miss = 6.60 − (13.006) = -6.406
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.406| = 6.406

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73054, race ID 1477 (538 database).