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2002 Senate · NC

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 45%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.95% · Republican 53.56%

R+8.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.955 − 53.564 = -8.609
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-8.609) = 5.609
  4. Absolute miss = |5.609| = 5.609

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72973, race ID 1672 (538 database).