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2020 President · AL

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 1,808 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 62%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.57% · Republican 62.03%

R+25.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 62 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.570 − 62.032 = -25.462
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-25.462) = -0.538
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.538| = 0.538

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72859, race ID 6212 (538 database).