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2020 President · CA

SurveyMonkey · fieldwork ended 2020-10-26 (8 days before the election) · 12,370 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 36%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.48% · Republican 34.32%

D+29.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 36 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.484 − 34.321 = 29.163
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (29.163) = -3.163
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.163| = 3.163

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72856, race ID 6215 (538 database).